Civilization has absorbed economic shocks driven by technology in the past, turning hundreds of millions of farmers into factory workers over the 19th and 20th centuries. However, these structural changes didn’t arrive as quickly as the breakneck pace we’re currently experiencing with AI. Based on current trends in technology advancement and adoption, I predict that within 15 years, AI will theoretically be able to replace 40% to 50% of jobs in the United States. Actual job losses may end up lagging behind by an additional decade, but the disruption to job markets will be very large, very real, and very soon.
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